Calendar

Week 1

Jan 19

Lecture 1: Class Overview: Notes / Course Overview / Slides / HW1 (due 01/24)

Jan 21

Discussion 1: Calibration: Discussion Worksheet

Week 2

Jan 24

Lecture 3: Scoring Rules: Notes / HW2 (due 01/31)

Jan 26

Lecture 4: Estimation: Notes

Jan 28

Discussion 2: Estimation: Discussion Worksheet

Week 3

Jan 31

Lecture 5: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting: Notes / Slides / HW3 (due 02/07)

Feb 2

Lecture 6: Base Rates and Reference Classes: Notes / Slides

Feb 4

Discussion 3: Discussion Worksheet

Week 4

Feb 7

Lecture 7: The “Other” Option: Notes / Slides / HW4 (due 02/14) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)

Feb 9

Lecture 8: Inner Game of Forecasting: Notes / Slides

Feb 11

Discussion 4: Discussion Worksheet

Week 5

Feb 14

Lecture 9: Combining Forecasts: Notes / Slides / HW5 (due 02/21)

Feb 16

Lecture 10: Common Probability Distributions: Notes / Slides

Feb 18

Discussion 5: Discussion Worksheet

Week 6

Feb 21

President’s Day

Feb 23

Lecture 11: Prioritizing Information: Notes / Slides / HW6 (due 02/28)

Feb 25

Discussion 6: Discussion Worksheet

Week 7

Feb 28

Lecture 12: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities: Notes / Slides / HW7 (due 3/7)

Mar 2

Lecture 13: Bayesian Aggregation of Evidence: Slides

Mar 4

Discussion 7: Discussion Worksheet

Week 8

Mar 7

Lecture 14: Case Study: AI Forecasting Pt. 1: Slides / HW8 (due 03/14)

Mar 9

Lecture 15: Case Study: AI Forecasting Pt. 2: Slides (same as previous)

Mar 11

Discussion 8: Discussion Worksheet

Week 9

Mar 14

Lecture 16: Statistical Street Fighting I: Notes / Slides/ HW 9 (due 03/17) / Project Proposal instructions (due 03/18)

Mar 16

Lecture 17: Statistical Street Fighting II: Notes / Slides

Mar 18

Discussion 9: Discussion worksheet

Week 10

Mar 21

Spring Recess

Mar 23

Spring Recess

Mar 25

Spring Recess

Week 11

Mar 28

Lecture 18: Cognitive Biases I: Notes / HW 10 (due 04/04)

Mar 30

Lecture 19: Cognitive Biases II: Notes (same as previous)

Apr 1

Discussion 10: Discussion Worksheet

Week 12

Apr 4

Lecture 20: Statistical Street Fighting III: Regression to the Mean and Selection of Range: Slides / HW 11 (due 04/11)

Apr 6

Lecture 21: Forecasting and Decision-Making

Apr 8

Discussion 11: Discussion Worksheet

Week 13

Apr 11

Lecture 22: Guest Lecture: Pandemic Forecasting (Juan Cambeiro): HW 12 (due 4/18) (last homework!)

Apr 13

Lecture 23: Guest Lecture: Information Sources (Carolyn Meinel): Slides

April 15

Discussion 12: Discussion Worksheet

Week 14

Apr 18

Lecture 24: Guest Lecture: Election Forecasting (David Shor)

Apr 20

Lecture 25: Independence Assumptions

Apr 22

Discussion 13: Discussion Worksheet

Week 14

Apr 25

Lecture 24: Predictions and Markets: Slides

Apr 27

Lecture 25: Project Presentations

Apr 29

Discussion 14: Project Presentations